(2/15) Stocks show no signs of giving it up and NQ patterns should keep us out of trouble and still need more upside. If the market can’t fall apart overnight, we may take partial profits on S&P shorts, as top-picking doesn’t work when you are fighting investment bankers. Dollar looks like it needs the slight new high and we would continue to add more gold.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/15) While our top-pick worked, NQ isn’t completed and resistance is at 2343.50 and cycles look up on Wednesday morning. Will need some earth-shattering news overnight or the investment bankers will continue along their merry way, and who can complain about their portfolio increasing in value. We’ll watch the market in the morning and see if we should take partial profits. Until 2295 comes out, we have no sign of starting this illusive 4th-wave pullback. Will exit partials in the morning. We wanted a strong reversal with anything from Yellen and not getting it.
OVERALL: (2/12) We have seen so many bear traps the last 6 years that we are a bit numb about getting two beared up. Still, we feel that a pattern completion at 2330 on cash would need a 100 point pullback before higher prices can come and that pullback may not be that dramatic if it happens in 3 waves with a first push lower into Feb. 28, a sideways recovery into early March and then another push down into mid-April. Given the way funds and hope and bubbles work, even if 2340 comes out on cash, we will quickly pull the plug on our analysis and assume that 2356 or 2372 could hit on the daily chart before a reversal.
NEAR TERM: The last pullback 2nd wave on the weekly chart was a congestive fall over 10 weeks. If that is the case again, it could be that we have a 100-point congestive pullback into the week of April 9.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering Wednesday.
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