FOR MONDAY: (3/6) The Monday before employment report often is a very volatile big-range day and then we see consolidation until the report comes out. We seemed to get sell signals for the dollar and we can clearly sell rallies in T-notes and sell stocks Sunday but usually by late Monday we have to deal with 3-4 days of sickly congestion and unclear patterns. Willing to take a stand on Sunday night on some markets but may get quickly out.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (3/6) We‘re open to a 1-2 day trade in case we get a major sell signal happening the next few days. Sunday and Monday look lower with a recovery on Tuesday. Worst upside if we’re wrong would be 2388. Often employment report week can be a big-range day and be followed by congestion until Friday. We’re at a time window to start a deeper 5-week correction of 80 S & P points but it may be complicated and choppy going into the March 15 FOMC announcement, with a rate hike looking more and more like a done deal. Still watching a close below 2270 on cash for a more significant sell signal and even then we might only get to 2263 for a minimum 38-point correction. Technically we got a minor sell signal yesterday but now the market is a bit overdone to chase. If the 80-point correction on cash has started, we’re looking at 2321 later in the month but would expect a secondary high setting up.
NEAR TERM: When one looks at the telescoping nature of this market, hard to see an 80-100 point correction but still there. Seasonally the market is often lower the 2nd half of March and if there is a new high to come to 2417, it will have to happen by March 15. The 2520 projection for May is very clearly in the patterns now and wondering if it will happen. We see no point in top-picking.
OVERALL: (2/15) Still thinking an early April low and then still new highs this year and not thinking crash this year to 2520 and maybe a 10% correction between August-October and 20% If things seem more dire with US rioting and a deeper European collapse. Market seems lower from mid-May into late June and probably into July.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Monday; higher Tuesday; congestive into Thursday; higher Friday; higher into March 13-14.
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