FOR TUESDAY: (11/8) The FBI lifting the latest Email investigation is a game changer but not a confirmation for victory. Our bias has been for a Clinton victory based on the fact that stocks appear to want to lift off after the election. That has now started earlier. The larger issue is that a President can’t be impeached for crimes they have done before they were in office and it seems difficult to think that the FBI will push through Clinton Foundation investigations and get indictments so quickly. There are also NYPD investigations to the Wiener tie that are unlikely to be dropped. Given that cycles still suggest a mess from about the middle of November until Christmas, I suspect disorder for the US financial markets won’t be over even if we get a relief rally on Wednesday-Monday. The Clinton campaign is very concerned about a Wikileaks bombshell today and Julian Assange has promised one if she doesn’t resign. That may prevent any early celebrations and any such event could lead to overnight gaps being filled if we get something but we are running out of time. One supercomputer that accurately predicted all the primaries has Trump winning so there are still surprises in store. Hard to hold anything overnight and if you want to bet on Wednesday’s results, you will have to use options or ETFs and have defensive strategies if you’re wrong.
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