FOR FRIDAY: (2/10) May be a quiet day. We’re open to continued optimism into Sunday night and perhaps bleeding into Monday but sometime early next week, we do expect trend reversals for the dollar and stocks and bonds and gold for at least 3 weeks.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S&P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (2/10) Looks like we will see 2310.50, a pullback to 2306.50 and a new high to 2316.50 to get a pattern completion. NQ looks like it will go to at least 5224. Not sure this market will turn over until Monday so we would not top-pick. If we are to top-pick, we’re thinking that Monday is the earliest looking for a 2-week fall into Feb. 27-28. Still money to be made on longs the next few days but more of a day-trading grind in ranges.
OVERALL: First pattern completion within a few days to 2310.50 and then a pullback and then an extended target is up to 2316 into early next week or as late as Feb. 11. We’ve learned not to be a martyr about top-picking and while we’re getting close to a key weekly chart high, it’s not quite in yet. Still, 2310 will be hard to take out right away and we won’t rule out 2332 on cash to have an absolute completion.
WEEKLY CHART: Overall, we continue to look for topping action and a 100-point S & P correction over the next few months. Market a bit too oversold to jump into sales without a recovery. Given the atmosphere out there, we wonder if it will be more. Open to a major short into Feb. 26-28 but have to pick your spots carefully.
NEAR TERM: It’s possible that a key high for the winter could be in by Feb 6-10 and that highs into the week of Feb. 6-10 are secondary highs. We’re still open to a major pattern completion on cash at 2332 into early Feb but it’s probably down to 30% chance to happen and 2309 would be welcome. The last pullback 2nd wave on the weekly chart was a congestive fall over 10 weeks. If that is the case again, it could be that we have a 100-point congestive pullback into the week of April 9.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Friday.
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