FOR FRIDAY: (3/31) Many of our patterns failed to manifest for secondary highs as month-end profit-taking on gold and T-notes and long euros continued to hit early. Most of the cycles seem strong on Friday and we would need really bearish news to get a major breakdown, although we always think of profit-taking setting in for stocks at month and quarter end. Will see where the market is for the morning.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
S&P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (3/31) The breakout projects 2380 for a secondary high and it seems more likely to happen on Friday than on Sunday but given profit-taking setting in for stocks at month and quarter end, we wonder if it will take until next week to manifest. We have a bias toward buying dips if there’s no extreme news but usually we expect to see profit-taking at month end.
PATTERNS: Possible still for complicated congestion between 2380 and 2350 next week with 2380 likely the cycle high by Monday if you’re willing to buy dips and hold over the weekend.
BIG PICTURE: Have to assume that the 80-point pullback was just a 4th wave and yet cycles in April are congestive enough that it may be a while before we can rule out the slight new high to 2417 to complete everything. As always, give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. We still expect a 15% pullback into the fall but it should start from higher levels.
LONGER TERM: (3/27) Still can’t officially say we have a weekly chart sell signal until 2300 comes out on a closing basis. It may be a while before we know if a weekly chart top is in. Expecting a May high and a new NQ high unless NQ takes out 5200–and if that’s the case, we’ll get a divergent S & P high to maybe 2420. Expecting that 2050 is possible into October for a 15% correction and cycle low and if the market closes under 2300, we would see 2200. Too early in the game to get too beared up but you can favor shorts into the week of April 2-6 and watch pattern completions. Still have to pick your spots carefully.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping into Monday; congesting before April 7 employment report.
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