Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR FRIDAY: (9/9) Not a lot of reports scheduled for Friday. Big event is rollover to Dec. currencies and stock indices and that always creates some juggling and profit-taking. Metals and currencies continue to trade rather erratically. Stocks continue to be a clear sale on rallies for at least one more day.

FOR THURSDAY: (9/8) ECB D-Day. It’s not expected to be a big deal but somehow Draghi says something in inflammatory and the computer ALGOS go into overdrive more than employment and FOMC days. If you’re not positioned properly, you can get killed. We will trade lightly from key numbers and pattern completions and wait for the dust to settle and logic rarely works after the head fakes and triple-head fake reversals.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/7) ISM services was the worst since 2010 and computer ALGOS dumped the dollar and took pressure off of the hawks. Expect some Fed Governors to set it right again so as to continue to chop us to death. Breakout on gold is very real but have to buy pullbacks and then gamble with ECB. We may better be able to do that with the mini and may have to switch back there.

FOR MONDAY: (9/5) Three-day weekends are hard to trade. We have a bias with certain patterns and cycles going into the weekend but always are concerned about bizarre news over these long weekends. Not seeing too many set-ups unless key numbers come in on Sunday for buys in notes. We will put out a Monday morning report only if the markets are overactive and updates are needed. Our next report will be published on Monday afternoon for markets for Monday night and Tuesday. Have a great and safe holiday weekend!

FOR FRIDAY: (9/2) Another employment report day with no one there as the everyone heads out of town or will do so by 9:30 am Central time. The problem with these Friday reports is that you get the news, the head-fake and then the weekend profit-taking and it’s almost not worth playing unless you can outbid computer algos on a mission. We’ll do our best to play but we’ll continue to focus on the trends that we see developing next week rather than reactions happening on news and surprises.

FOR THURSDAY: (9/1) Markets waiting for employment numbers and people will start heading for the exits soon before the long holiday weekend. Not sure first of the month fund buying will mean much before employment and long weekends. Cycles and patterns suggest higher dollars and lower notes on Friday and lower gold and lower crude oil continuing. Cycles are very volatile going into the long weekend and we may get some short-covering on oversold markets by Sunday and Monday.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/31) Markets waiting for employment numbers and people will start heading for the exits soon before the long holiday weekend. Dollar remains strong and Stanley Fischer seems like he wants to keep it that way by getting rid of talk of one and done. Gold is close to a major breakdown and we’re thinking it will happen and oil cycles are weak until Sept. 9 also, and it could break harder than many think.

FOR TUESDAY: (8/30) There is a cycle that often causes changes of trend for markets on Tuesday. We think some of the movement on Monday was just retracing Friday’s craziness, and gold and stocks should turn lower again and also crude. Dollar cycles point higher, and that may be the case if we are right on gold. We will be patient.

FOR MONDAY: (8/29) There was really nothing in Yellen’s speech to cause that much volatility but nothing has happened for 2 weeks and the markets unwound and bet on a sooner rate hike. Next week we have volatile action before the employment report. We’re crunching cycles for Sept. and are more bearish stocks and T-notes now and have to be friendly the dollar for a few weeks. Volatility cycles and surprise cycles increase into Thursday so expect a treacherous week.

FOR FRIDAY: (8/26) We often get point/countertpoint reactions when Yellen unleashes. Sometimes you get a quick reaction and then end of the week profit-taking sets in. Usually it’s difficult to outsmart computer ALGOS but we can take positions at key place in patterns. We think stocks have finally issued a sell signal for the 4th wave and doubt there’s more than 2140-48 for the S & P. Metals are unraveling and are still vulnerable into Monday so it may be much worse than expected. Dollar is so subject to surprises and has become a bit crazy but we’ll hold out with a big stop and see if the downward pattern unfolds.