Tricky fighting harvest pressure

FOR THURSDAY: (10/4) Not thrilled with grain action on Wednesday and we see beans lower and it could drag the rest of the complex down. If grains hold up ok on Thursday, we could still see a recovery on Friday. Still, it’s tricky fighting harvest pressure, which could kick in quickly if rains let up.


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Beans probably a buy by Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (10/1) USDA’s quarterly stocks report was the main driver in grain markets on Friday, delivering mostly bearish news. Corn futures tumbled more than 2% by Friday’s close, with soybeans down more than 1%. The agency’s stock report had more bullish news for wheat, but those futures also ended around 0.5% lower amid some…


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Cycles for Thursday point lower

FOR THURSDAY: (9/27) Trade waiting on Friday’s USDA reports. Those reports are also happening at the end of the month when funds square position and before a harvest weekend. Cycles for Thursday look potentially lower so the trade may cash in their chips. Cattle may hold up all day but we will move stops up.


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Hogs still looking higher for a few days

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/26) We had a bullish grain cycle into Wednesday and didn’t get out of short beans fast enough or reverse. Still should be up on Wednesday but may get more volatile, and bean reversal was a bit ugly already. Hogs are still higher a few days, as are cattle.


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Expecting a pullback on Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/25) Expecting a pullback on Tuesday. Nothing bullish in the crop conditions report. We do see higher meats the rest of the week but hard to chase hogs at current levels. Still like long cattle and may get one more pullback early Tuesday for a buy on feeders.


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Harvest pressure likely to hit grains into Sunday-Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (9/24) We see harvest pressure hitting grains into Sunday-Tuesday, and someone is going to use this rally to empty their bins. Too early and too big of a crop to declare a major bottom. Cattle on Feed was as expected but dips should be bought, with higher prices the rest of the week….


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Exaggerated short-covering may not mean much

FOR FRIDAY: (9/21) Cycles are mixed. Definite chart turn-ups for wheat and beans but corn is lagging, and we’re coming into weekend harvest action and Sunday look lowers and also possibly Monday. Exaggerated short-covering may not mean that much given the large crops. We had exited ½ of corn and bean hedges already and should…


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Too dangerous to buy grains

FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) We had grains recovering on Wednesday but think it may be a 1-day shot. Grains are often lower on Thursdays and beans need to take out 836 to trigger a daily chart reversal. Action on Wednesday was promising but too early to signal a seasonal bottom. Corn still would look better at…


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