Beans close to key support at 1025

FOR TUESDAY: (4/24) Beans are close to key support at 1025 and corn held up well; wheat should hold 468 and do some dead-cat bounces. Cattle looks good for a few days to the upside and hogs should be down hard on Tuesday on a weak cold storage report.

JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/24) Support at 385 held and lower plantings are supportive for a dead cat bounce in the night session but will it take out 389? Support is at 380-1 if the market fails at 389 and turns back down. Hard to consider longs so we will leave it alone and may not have a sale until Thursday or Friday if bounces are weak.
OVERALL: Weekly charts are starting to look vulnerable, and it will be hard to take out 400 in the spring.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Thursday.

Hard to get friendly toward grains

FOR MONDAY: (4/23) Hard to get friendly toward grains. We saw Friday sharply down but didn’t chase and now we may get weak bounces for a few days. Beans have a weak cycle on Monday and aren’t the one to bottom pick. Cattle on Feed report was considered neutral, but numbers seem negative and a 1-day wash-out would be good.Continue reading

Friday the weakest day of the week for grains

FOR FRIDAY: (4/20) Friday is the weakest day of the week for grains but beans just about have put in a pattern completion and only wheat is overbought enough to sell. We see higher grains early next week and most of next week and so sales on Friday may be day-trades. Trade waiting on the COF report, and we took profits on cattle.Continue reading

Grain cycles friendly on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (4/19) Cycles are friendly on Thursday but grains often come off and also cattle so we have to be defensive before the COF report. We could easily see corn and wheat hold up another day but beans look terrible and the grains look heavy. Trade will be position squaring before the COF report.Continue reading

Grains need to breakout on Wednesday or they’re in trouble

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/18) Markets holding up ok but failed to breakout. Wednesday needs to breakout or we’re in trouble in grains. Cycles are friendly for grains the next few days. Overall cycles are very friendly the next few days so we really need some upward action to negate the recent 2-day move retracing.Continue reading

Grains should recover into end of the week

FOR TUESDAY: (4/17) Cycle lows came in on Monday and should complete overnight and then grains should recover into the end of the week. We just need to survive any overnight craziness. Wheat did issue a major sell signal but sometimes when that happens, the trade gets oversold and has to recover.Continue reading

Will wheat prices drag grains lower on Monday?

FOR MONDAY: (4/16) Will wheat prices drag grains lower on Monday? Profit-taking set in but only wheat is showing very stressful signs. With a low going into this key weekend, we’re may see the market pop out of here–and even if we get a low on Monday, we expect higher prices into April 25-26 next.Continue reading

Cattle looking strong into Monday

FOR FRIDAY: (4/13) Going to go with longs on beans and corn if we can get good value. Will pass on wheat. Cattle took off and we can hold into Monday with weather over the weekend and the return to winter.Continue reading

Going with long beans, corn

FOR THURSDAY: (4/12) Going to go with longs on beans and corn if we can get good value. Will pass on wheat. Cattle are ok but still may erode on Thursday before they take off. We probably have to go with the cycle inversion cycle into Monday, as markets are not showing too many signs of pulling back, although wheat may have a chance and that will probably make us pause.Continue reading

Bean patterns not quite done to the upside

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/11) The monthly USDA report is often a cycle turn, and it came in as a high for beans and wheat. Patterns to the upside aren’t quite done for beans, and the wheat fundamentals are too good to fade. Normally we would project cycle lows for grains into Sunday/Monday based on our work, and that leaves us unable to pull the trigger. If pullbacks do come and they are minor, I suspect the grain markets will be a buy thereafter. We did have a bias for higher cattle the next few days and would like to buy. We don’t trust hogs but never sell on Wednesdays.Continue reading