More trade wars announced tonight could torpedo grains, meats

FOR FRIDAY: (4/6) More trade wars announced tonight are likely to unnerve overbought grains and meats now, so chances are they’re a sale and then we’ll see where we are on Monday. If grains pull back a few days and haven’t hit upper targets, then there might be a buy if you want to gamble…


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Grains may retrace into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (4/5) Knee-jerk reactions on very bad news can create major lows and buying opportunities and the smart money was buying the dip last night and the movement was exaggerated. While grains may retrace a few days now into Friday, they look higher early next week and then we have the USDA report coming….


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29/30-day grain cycles higher the next few days

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/4) Cycles are complicated for Wednesday and patterns are mixed enough that we will leave the markets alone. Cattle clearly have at least one more rung to go but harder to chase. Cycles into Wednesday/Thursday have often been dramatically bearish but once in a while they invert, and the 29/30-day cycles for grains…


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Cycles mixed this week

FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Mixed data. Spillover from the stock market was ugly, and that may hurt the market into mid-week. Cycles are mixed enough and action erratic that we have a low-confidence trade but will hang on. Cattle may bounce 1-2 days and set up new shorts, and hogs are in trouble for at least…


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3-day weekend volatility always exaggerated

FOR MONDAY: (4/2) First-of-the-month fund buying is always an issue and 3-day weekend volatility is always exaggerated. We have learned to avoid trading these post holidays and let the dust settle.


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Beans may not take out 1035-36 before the report

FOR THURSDAY: (3/29) Not planning a lot of trading before or after the reports on Thursday or into Monday. Three-day weekends are very volatile. We have outlined patterns and cycles below and you are welcome to trade but time for a rest with the Easter/Passover holiday.


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Grains headed for short-covering

FOR WEDNESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.


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Minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday

FOR TUESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.


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Grain cycles remain complicated

FOR MONDAY: (3/26) Grain cycles remain complicated and USDA report on Thursday may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually do not like to play this congestive week before the report. Cattle on Feed was…


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Short-covering will hit cattle before COF

FOR FRIDAY: (3/23) Mixed cycles into Friday. The 29/30-day cycles are friendly for grains, and logic says short-covering will hit cattle before COF on Friday. That makes most sense to us. There is a bearish cycle that peaks into late Friday but could lead to some more downward action, but we’re going to favor some…


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