Too dangerous to buy grains

FOR THURSDAY: (9/20) We had grains recovering on Wednesday but think it may be a 1-day shot. Grains are often lower on Thursdays and beans need to take out 836 to trigger a daily chart reversal. Action on Wednesday was promising but too early to signal a seasonal bottom. Corn still would look better at…


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Key numbers in on grains

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/19) Key numbers in on grains. Lower is very possible. Cycles are more mixed than higher into Friday so not seeing any need to buy with harvest pressure building. Hogs may get oversold and fall into Friday with no place to go. Cattle are mixed and we have a bias toward lower prices.


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Cycle low for grains into Wednesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/18) We found a new cycle low for grains into Wednesday that we missed in earlier research so no reason to bottom pick corn early. Beans projecting 805 now and wheat could easily get taken along for the ride. Will the trade buy the fact of the China sanctions or will they just…


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Wheat minimum numbers in

FOR MONDAY: (9/17) Minimum numbers for wheat came in and that may block corn from hitting the more ideal 346-7 area for now but possible with harvest pressure. Beans can’t be bought as a countertrend play unless we see 811-13, and that would take some major bad news out of China combined with harvest pressure.


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Cycles suggest short-covering for grains on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (9/14) Not sure we learned much on Thursday. With weekend harvest pressure, it may be too much to expect a short-covering bounce or a rally on Monday but it’s still early in the harvest season so maybe not too much pressure. Cycles suggest short-covering on Friday and higher prices on Monday. The wild…


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Probably can’t press grain shorts

FOR THURSDAY: (9/13) Wondering when the trade will start worrying about crop loss in South. May be soon. Probably can’t press grain shorts until we get an overreaction to the upside now and grains are very oversold. Hogs finally getting a reality check that we could be repeating 1999 again.


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Stocks still looking bearish

FOR TUESDAY: (9/11) Wondering if 9/11 Memorial will spook anyone on Tuesday. Most markets were quiet and not telling us much, as Super Thursday is approaching with a number of Central Bank meetings (but not the US until Sept. 26). Nothing happening on the commodity front of interest just yet or with other markets. Hurricane…


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Next corn sale may be Wednesday

FOR TUESDAY: (9/11) Trade waiting on Wednesday’s USDA report and many think that corn will miss estimates, and that’s probably the case. Still, upside potential is limited. Hogs should be impacted by the Hurricane, as the Carolinas are huge hog producers. Still, the market came off a 1.20 from the highs.


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Need a pullback into Tuesday to buy cattle

FOR MONDAY: (9/10) Logic has us thinking cool and wet weather over the weekend will spook grain traders higher although many normal cycles would be lower on Sunday/Monday. We are going with logic and we got long wheat and are open to chasing beans more than corn. Need a pullback into Tuesday to buy cattle….


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