FOR THURSDAY: (4/27) Wednesday was very volatile and some of it was tied to economic saber-rattling with Canada and Mexico and a surprise limit-up move in cattle. Soybeans were lower amid talk that delays in corn planting could possibly shift some of those acres to soybeans. Winter wheat markets closed near unchanged while spring wheat had more gains as wintry weather slowed planting in the northern states. Usually we can get away selling grains on Thursday with beans the safest of the bunch, as weather is still ugly for corn.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/27) Beans didn’t get close enough to 971.50 to have a good risk/reward for selling and the close leaves the market a bit vulnerable. We had a bias toward lower action the next few days. We should get a 5-8 cent bounce overnight and would use it get short, as this market is the weakest of the bunch. Planting delays have been a concern for Canada’s canola and had pushed that market higher. Old-crop canola months were lower today after recent gains, but the new-crop months were higher again. Last week, Statistics Canada said farmers there are expected to plant nearly 10% more canola and 27.2% more soybeans. The expected 22.4 million acres of canola and 7 million of soybeans would be records.
OVERALL: Weekly charts still are bearish for 916 and 895. How the market gets there is still a mystery as cycles are choppy and a recovery seems likely the first 2-3 days of next week.
SHORT-TERM: (4/18) The most bearish patterns into late April and early May Weekly chart recovery target may only be close to 1100 if we get major problems with weather in June and they often happen. Way too much to ask for without a weather problem.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Friday.
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