FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/29) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Unclear whether it will happen. Rallies were not very strong or meaningful on Tuesday. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Cattle may have 1-2 more days to fall and hogs look almost done.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July Chicago wheat shorts from 451.75 with 442.75 stop. Exit 428.75.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/29) Willing to wait for key pattern completion on wheat to exit but stops are very tight to lock in profits. Not in a rush to buy. Larger patterns into April suggest two more new lows. While traders expected only a modest reduction in spring wheat acres to show up in Friday’s USDA Prospective Plantings, some traders are bracing from a lower number if farmers shift acres to soybeans.
SHORT-TERM: (3/14) Daily chart support is at 426 and 418. Spring low could be down to 405. Dryness problems haven’t shown up in weekly crop ratings and world supplies have been abundant. Cycle lows dominate into March 25-26 and if we get a recovery after USDA, chances are it will be sold again. Look for 443 to hold with a bounce to 452 or 455 coming at publication. Five waves down on the daily chart projects 405.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into March 30-31.
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