FOR TUESDAY: (2/14) Cycles and technical signals look lower for meats a few more days. Grains are stubborn but seem like they are tiring at key resistance areas. Would still expect overbought conditions to lead to breaks this week. Will stay patient.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/14) Still has not taken out the 1061 region definitively. Slight new high to 1063.50 could lead to a breakout to 1072. We haven’t wanted to top-pick beans until they’re closer to 1100. Market should turn lower next week and weather may not be there. Willing to sell beans near 1071 if they gap higher.
OVERALL: It’s hard to get too beared up about beans because there is a sense that they will eventually go to 1108 or 1120 if we are patient into March. If you have immediate needs for cash, we will consider some sales here.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/2) Three waves up projects 1120 but wondering if it has a chance now without new weather or whether it will happen as soon as early March. Major weekly chart resistance is at 1082 but it would take another weather crisis to get it higher. Selling 90% of old crop in the 1100-1120 region makes sense given a huge acreage coming. While we see problems in June with this market, any trade problems with China could lead to a plunge to 920. The market has gotten ahead of itself with funds jumping on flooding in SA but somehow Mother Nature finds a way to rebalance. We wonder now if beans will go back to 1000-992 into late Feb. given weak cycles.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Tuesday; recovering Wednesday; lower Thursday/Friday; bottoming Feb. 20 (evening session); recovering higher Feb. 21.
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