FOR FRIDAY: (7/14) Collapses in the grains usually can lead to cascading waterfall events as the trade heads for the exits. Still won’t rule out a head-and-shoulders bounce into Monday so chasing has to be followed by quick profits. We had suggested puts on strength and futures are crazy and will still be so. We had put out some early sales on beans and if we’re to get into corn it may be from bounce later. These markets don’t let one in easily when they fall apart. The market could congest before the weekend and be higher on Sunday into early Monday if the pollination scare happens but then looks sharply lower on Monday night after the crop report.
NOV. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold Nov. bean shorts from 1010 with a 1004 stop. Exit 961. Take partial profits at 983 and 966.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/14) We luckily sold the open and patterns look like 960 could come in before a bounce and not sure where that bounce will go to. Support at 982 and 965 on the daily chart is important with major support at 960. Thinking that market may be down overnight and then be sideways going into the weekend and open to a post-weekend weather bounce, as the market will be very oversold.
OVERALL: Technically action is disastrous but we can get recoveries later in the year if there are problems with pollination later and yields drop. The projection to 1096 is not out of the question given current weekly chart patterns.
WEEKLY CHART: Weekly chart hedge area near 1100-1096.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways to higher Friday; recovering July 17; sharply lower Monday night.
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