FOR FRIDAY: (5/26) Fridays before long weekends can be rather sideways. We have to wait for Monday’s weather to get any new surprises out of the market and while we have weekend rain, not sure the market cares that much more given that it only could push corn up to 375 earlier in the week.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/26) Not much action here. Wanting to take profits at 422.75 on partials but wondering if we’ll have to wait until Monday night or Tuesday to get it. First support at 422 and then 416.50.
FUNDAMENTALS: (5/25) The lower crude oil, technical factors and possible corn acres being switched to soybeans may have been selling factors. Soybean planting has gone well so far, with 53% done as of Sunday, 1% better than both the five-year average. Planting was ahead of the state average in Iowa, but behind in Illinois and Indiana
OVERALL: Seasonal pressure is always on winter wheat into late May and it can sometimes extend into mid-June. Three waves down on the weekly continuation chart project 3.99 and the USDA has given 3.85 as the lower end for where prices may go and they figure the market will not get above 465. Hard for us to see wheat getting above 438-440 again and given the downside potential to 399 or 385 on July wheat, we have to continue to sell rallies. First place July wheat will fall is 418 and then 410-2.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into May 26; May 29-31 low.
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