FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) We were wrong about grains turning around this week but Wednesday is often the safest day for them to go higher and they are a bit beat up and looks like minor 4th-wave bounces are due. Still, seasonals often turn down in late April and we probably were too optimistic. Not panicking yet but grains are in trouble. Cattle still could be up on Wednesday and we’ll buy oversold conditions for hogs.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
SWING TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/19) Three-wave bounce today projects 439 for scalpers but market seems vulnerable given terrible action on Monday. If the market takes out 442, then we will reopen a move to 452 but getting closer to seasonal hedging in early May and we need to get up there to have decent value to hedge. Rains appear to be drifting west on the Plains in maps for the next week. Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts show above normal precipitation for winter wheat returning after a dry spell on the southwest Plains. The latest updates are a little drier overall for Texas.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering April 19; topping/lower April 20-21.
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