FOR TUESDAY: (1/31) The weather play for South American grains is over now. Markets have issued clearer daily chart sell signals for grains but are oversold and we need a recovery into Thursday or early Friday to have better risk/reward for selling. Cattle may fill their gaps if we’re lucky and set up March Feeder hedges. Not sure the game is over for live cattle yet.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/31) Major support at 1016 now. We had hoped for a bounce to 1060 to have any chance for a decent sale and now the market has been down 45 cents from the highs. We won’t give up on 1100-1120 but it may not come for a while as we have discussed. We have trouble chasing at current levels. Look for short-covering into Tuesday even if it starts from lower levels at 1016. Have to see what kind of bounce develops into Thursday.
OVERALL: We can’t rule out higher prices later to 1107 or 1120 but it will require new problems and happen in March or May. We can’t always count on Feb. sales anymore like past seasonal patterns so we have to consider hedging and selling from value into Thursday.
WEEKLY CHART: (1/31) Three waves up projects 1120 but wondering if it has a chance now without new weather or whether it will happen as early as early March. Major weekly chart resistance is at 1157 but it would take another weather crisis to get it higher. Selling 90% of old crop in the 1100-1120 region makes sense given a huge acreage coming. While we see problems in June with this market, any trade problems with China could lead to a plunge to 920. The market has gotten ahead
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Feb. 1.
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