FOR THURSDAY: (2/9) Grains are waiting for USDA report on Thursday but cycles look lower into Friday so not thinking the report will go well, and we should use any rallies to get short. Beans remain a bit crazy as always but we feel good selling and hedging corn and wheat at these levels. Cattle and hogs look lower for a few days.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/9) Market went a few ticks above key resistance at 1053. Major resistance at 1061 and then at 1084. Market looking better and we find it hard to trade USDA reports with huge ranges. The Goldman roll should also continue to knock the market down. It’s hard to get too beared up about beans because there’s a sense that they’ll eventually go to 1108 or 1120 if we’re patient into March. If you have immediate needs for cash or need to so some hedges, then consider hedges at the market Wednesday night or Thursday day session.
OVERALL: We won’t give up on 1100-1120 but it may not come for a while into March and if beans don’t implode more drastically.
WEEKLY CHART: (2/2) Three waves up projects 1120 but wondering if it has a chance now without new weather or whether it will happen as early as early March. Major weekly chart resistance is at 1157 but it would take another weather crisis to get it higher. Selling 90% of old crop in the 1100-1120 region makes sense given a huge acreage coming. While we see problems in June with this market, any trade problems with China could lead to a plunge to 920. The market has gotten ahead of itself with funds jumping on flooding in SA but somehow Mother Nature finds a way to rebalance. Cycles are weak in February. Beans will pull back to at least 1000-992 into late February.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways/higher into Feb. 9.
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