FOR FRIDAY: (10/13) Thinking the trade will consolidate gains in beans and corn on Friday but we still see higher prices early next week. Cattle look lower on Friday and a dominant cycle into Oct. 26 may push the market lower the rest of the month, and we probably will stick with shorts. Hogs should be higher one more day and we will evaluate them later.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/13) We had sensed that oversold conditions could only lead to recovery despite no good news. Cycles are mixed for Friday as the 29/30-day cycle is positive but some minor cycles overnight suggest a pullback. We have a bias toward a recovery until at least Tuesday of next week and will continue to wait for 355 as a more ideal place to be selling and hedging more.
WASDE: (10/12) U.S. corn production is also forecast higher, up 96 million bushels from September for a total of 14.280 billion bushels. Supply and use changes essentially offset, with U.S. corn ending stocks up 5 million bushels from a month ago. Global corn stocks are down 1.5 million from a month ago, to 201.0 million.
OVERALL: Eventually harvest pressure will do this market in as seasonal lows come in Thanksgiving. We still could even get down to 312 based on weekly and daily chart patterns. Cycles are higher much of next week and the daily chart patterns could go back up to 355 before the market turns lower again. We should get out on any harvest pressure over the weekend rather than ride this market up for a week with a drawdown.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways Friday; generally higher into Tuesday.
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