GOLD ISSUES SELL SIGNAL ON INFLATIONARY CPI DATA

(2/13)  The CPI came out inflationary today up 3.1% and hotter than expected. With rising oil this month, not sure it will come down next month.  Contrary to belief, gold does not like inflation.

April Gold future below 2004 is issuing a more serious sell signal.  Below that the extended pattern to 1957 or 1940 will come in.   Is CPI a game changer?  We will throw cycles out the window for now and only an X-factor event will save gold and we are in the window for one so it’s hard to be too short.

Our original cycle work had supported a bounce here but a little news can throw cycles out the window.

Are we having another Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown Moment?       Technically, we need to see Gold take out 2085 to get more interested and then we may only get 2110.

GLD:  Patterns on GLD would look better if 181-2 came in and that would complete a 2nd wave retracement.    The market could hold 184.00 and bounce to 188.00 and still go to 181-2.

CRUDE OIL NOTES:   Breakout here points to 7940 and 8050 and above there 8250.  Market is higher until at least Friday and not sure that the Middle East tensions will go away and create much of a fall.  A close above 8050 would  push up  to 9000 and 9600 and even 118.00 into the summer.  Seasonals are lower in March often.   There will be a good long-term play setting up here.

NOTE: The stock market reversed per our last update to you and should start a fall to at least 4800 on cash.
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METALS AND ENERGY UPDATES

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FALL GEOPOLITICAL PREVIEW
Major climax cycles are set up around  BRICS Summit in South Africa on August 21-23.   Also into  August 23-28th there are several international and geo-political cycles peaking and not sure how they resolve. Tensions between leaders and government are also climaxing into August 26-27th.  Something major will happen then in the world.  Will the stock market care? We do have cycle lows due into that time window.  

Fall is usually not a great time for the stock market.  We looked at our geopolitical cycles and there are a number of things setting up.

1)    BRICS desire to destroy the dollar.
2)    The political and Presidential crises in America could hurt the perception of investing in the US.  We sense a late October peak here. We remember the Watergate scandal in 1973-4/
3)    Geopolitical tensions with China over Taiwan have an eerie 18.5-year cycle peaking into November.  
4)    Another eerie geopolitical cycle with North Korea nuclear muscle-flexing is also peaking into November.
5)    The reality of the FOMC  will continue to hit.

We have some thoughts on fall downward potential.  It is possible with the repeat of the Oct 1987 crash cycle into this October and November and it is connected to the 12 year cycle going into the third time around.

Gold cycles are very supportive for a strong rally in September and Bitcoin will probably benefit from this mess.  For now we are in the dog days of August wondering if 4650 on the S & P cash will hit before the craziness.  

 
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METALS COMPLEX TIMING AND READY FOR A CORRECTION

August gold issued a sell signal this morning as it came off on the ECB rate hike and comments and hit 1942. It may get to 1926 before having a minor bounce into August 1st but the trade tends to sell metals off into the end of the month which is Monday. Silver is also close to a breakdown signal at 2410 on Sept. futures . The ETFs are also in trouble as GDX and GLD came off sharply and also SLV. How far will they fall into the August low. When will they bottom? What kind of hope is there for the fall for a strong rally? We do see a financial crisis this fall and gold and silver will finally take off and continue into next year but for now they are ready to correct.

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-Barry

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Cracks in the Markets and the Economy

The Silicon Valley Banking crisis and then,

that of Signature Bank on Sunday are the beginning of cracks appearing.

• The FDIC rode to the rescue but will the band-aid solve the larger problem of raising rates from 0 to 5% in a year? 

• What will happen at next week’s FOMC meeting? 

• We do not see the correction in the stock market being over until April, so how low will it go? 

• Moreover, there is a bankruptcy cycle into late May that we last saw in 1873 during a Panic Year. Will it repeat? 

• Is it connected to the US debt ceiling?  

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-Barry

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Is the Gold Correction Done?

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Whippy Stocks Post CPI

The inflationary CPI has yielded an odd response for the stock market with very whippy action.  Cycles remain whippy into Wednesday and possibly early Thursday and while the market is trying to complete a retracement low and it is chopping everyone up.  We do have a number of entry dates and prices and we still do see 4300-4328 on S & P cash coming into early March. Stay on top of our top sector picks with the Fortucast ETF timer and keep up with the wild action with the Fortucast Financial Timer.

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Metals tend to pull back into the end of the month on fund position squaring and profit-taking. Gold is too overbought to chase but cycle highs dominate into the first week of March and pullbacks may be minor.  Gold could surge to 2100 and has made new highs in Gold/Yen and Gold/Euro already.    We are watching GLD and GDX on the ETF timer.

March silver futures are not likely to take out 2250 and buying SLV on dips early next week should be good as that market is less overbought than gold  Platinum is also looking good into early March but technically is looking a bit more troubling.  Should find support at 970 next week.  Watching PPLT for the ETF    Copper continues to have great fundamentals due to China and is projecting 490 into early March.   There are cycle lows for copper into mid-Feb. and we will be patient with it and watch CPER for the ETF.   Long-term cycles for metals are great into Sept and into March 2024 and with the death knell of the dollar coming with the end of the Petrodollar and the Saudis turning on the US and moving toward China, there are big changes coming.  Stay on top of new entries for metals with the Fortucast Financials Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer.  A one-month trial is only 97.00.

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Will Metals Continue their Ride?
 

Longer-term metals cycles are friendly into March 2023 and we are still waiting for gold to close over 1820 and silver to take out 2240 to confirm higher numbers.

Cycles suggest that we will get a confirmed bottom and then a secondary low into December which will be a better entry and if the FED is not as generous as many are hoping for, gold and silver may retrace recent gains.

-Barry

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