News-dominated weekends always precarious

FOR MONDAY: (5/1) These news-related weekends are always precarious and we’re unable to do much about them unless we put out updates and new trades before the Sunday open. We’re assuming that the budget extension will pass for another week but that means another exciting weekend next week. We’re more concerned about Puerto Rico but…


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Markets in holding pattern waiting on budget

FOR FRIDAY: (4/28) Markets are in holding pattern waiting on budget. Late wranglings are politics as usual with fights over Obamacare and Puerto Rico which should go bankrupt next week. We may not get a resolution until Friday night and the markets could be in limbo and then explode. Feeling like a secondary high for…


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Stocks still seem safest buy on dips

FOR THURSDAY: (4/27) Bank of Japan overnight and then ECB and Korea is still making background noise. The problem is that there‘s usually a reason not to trade every day. Sometimes you have to take a brave stand based on pattern. ECB days are filled with surprises more than most so stay alert. Stocks still…


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NQ highs in May still on target

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/26) Not much change to last night’s general comments. No key events pending except North Korea and Trump’s tax announcement but that’s in the market already and probably will be sold. Lots of Central Bank meetings by Thursday with Bank of Japan and the ECB. We think that the cycles favor a budget…


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Dollar needs to go to 9800

FOR TUESDAY: (4/25) Lots of Central Bank meetings by Thursday with Bank of Japan and the ECB. We think that the cycles favor a budget deficit resolution by late Friday night, which just may mean kicking the can down the road but the market is fine with that as long as stocks go higher. Dollar…


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Cycles still point towards mild recovery in stocks

FOR MONDAY: (4/24) Stocks ended softer ahead of the weekend and will turn their attention to next week’s budget talks and government funding deadline on Friday. Cycles still point towards a mild recovery in stocks and continued rebound in the dollar. Gold should be backing off after Friday’s surprise recovery. Crude may be overdone on…


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Crude looks lower into Monday

FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We’re still a bit in paralysis mode and expecting that people will want to be flat going into the weekend but many are thinking that any North Korean nuclear test won’t happen until early May and ships heading for that area may take a week to get there. We ran cycles into…


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Dollar looks higher into Sunday/Monday

FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower. Stocks should recover from a lower open on Thursday and should be a day-trade long. Still, world aggression and violence cycles are strong into Tuesday and we remain concerned about trigger-happy generals reacting…


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Whippy action likely to continue

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) Whippy action on Tuesday with the UK call for June 8 elections causing a lot of unwindings in currency positions, as short pounds were suddenly not the place to be. Whippy action likely to continue for a week based on cycles, more saber-rattling and war cycles with North Korea and the “forgotten”…


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Dollar higher into Thursday

FOR TUESDAY: (4/18) While the markets went to the edges in terms of bounce and retracement, the writing on the wall suggests higher dollars into Thursday and it won’t take much to pull stocks up. Basically the market is rebalancing last week’s conditions and waiting on news. Our sense is that cycles into Friday-Tuesday of…


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