Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR TUESDAY: (10/31) End of the month profit-taking may give us a chance to buy from better levels. We do have a sense that the market may have trouble going up much this week. Employment report and FOMC week can be choppy and there are always surprises so we have to trade lightly.

DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/31) First support is at 2563 with major support at 2553.75. Cycles are positive on Tuesday and we do have end of the month profit-taking coming in. Key daily chart trendline support comes in at 2553.50 and we can’t see the S & P taking out 2548 and given the way this market works, we have to buy this dip.
OVERALL: Market looks lower into Thanksgiving and if that major target of 2600 does come in it may set up a 300-point correction finally. But until then, it should be business as usual. There is a sense that volatility is going to increase and having wide swings in a choppy range would make sense.
LONGER-TERM: Cycles are intense in the world but the market continues to ignore them. At best if we are to get a pullback to 2320, it may come from 2600 and it may take more time to manifest with December being vulnerable with the budget deficit.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower part of Tuesday; volatile Wednesday; higher Thursday

FOR MONDAY: (10/23) Despite S & P cycles that look very weak early next week, the other markets suggest that stocks might crawl slightly higher before doing a 30-point pullback. Those looking for crashes will continue to be disappointed this year and at best a 300-point S & P pullback from 2600-2300 might be possible if a minor crisis develops into the end of the year on a US budget crisis.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (10/20) Pre-weekend jitters again may create sideways markets with a lot of release due Sunday/Monday. If stocks do not do much to the upside on Friday, they could make new lows on Monday/Tuesday but we are inclined to expect new highs on SP on Friday as the bargain-hunters are back in and greed is unquenchable. We often trade lightly on Fridays but are willing to take some positions home.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (10/19) Chances are nothing will happen with N. Korea but it’s still pretty dicey and Thursday offers some chance for volatility. We’re trading off of patterns and they have a temporary completion at 2562 on the S & P. Gold and silver issued a major sell signal and crude hold up until Oct. 22.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/18) Chances are nothing will happen with N. Korea but it’s still pretty dicey and Wednesday/Thursday offer some chance for volatility. We’re trading off of pattern and minor cycles for stocks. Gold and silver issued a major sell signal and crude may hold up until Oct. 22.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (10/17) The news that Jack Taylor might be the next Fed chairman upset the dollar, bond and gold markets near the close took away some of our profits. We have a bias toward higher dollars now until Wednesday and lower metals in general and except for another Communist Celebration day for North Korea on Thursday, we might not have any worries. Still, cycles are dicey until Nov. 3 and the chances of world tensions rising has to be kept in the back of one’s mind.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (10/16) Stock market is tiring and there are a number of larger cycle changes that started Friday that will continue into the coming weeks that may give this market pause to go much higher. We’re not into top-picking stocks but will be alert. Not sure people want to go home long again before North Korea red letter day on Oct. 18. We found a bunch of minor cycle inversions and end of the week profit-taking may set in for sideways congestion anyway. New saber-rattling with Iran is of course something else we don’t need on top of North Korea flak. Cycles get more intense the next few weeks for confrontation. We also ran two new cycles for Wednesday/Thursday and they’re giving us more information on the coming week.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (10/13) Stock market is tiring and there are a number of larger cycle changes happening starting Friday and into the coming weeks that may give this market pause to go much higher. We’re not into top-picking stocks but will be alert. Not sure people want to go home long again before North Korea red letter day on Oct. 18. We found a bunch of minor cycle inversions and end of the week profit-taking may set in for sideways congestion anyway.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (10/12) Latest projection on N. Korea missile launches is Oct. 18 in celebration of a Communist Party event. That may give another week breather in the tensions. Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11) Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Not sure FOMC minutes will mean much but they always cause the computer Algos to trigger. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.Continue reading