Category: Financial Markets Update

FOR TUESDAY: (7/10) Stock traders are on steroids now so don’t be surprised if they just run things up for fun because there is no other game in town. Can’t ignore technical breakouts and the look of charts. S & P could break 30 points but if it comes from 2820, it won’t mean much. Summer fun is here!

SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (7/10) Hard to imagine the S & P running much through 2798-2800 quickly but if it does, then 2820 will come in more quickly than we’ve imagined. One pattern projects a 30-point correction before higher prices but it seems more likely to come on Wednesday. Cycles are still positive with the cycle inversion over the next few days pointing higher. We’ll assume positive movement until at least July 18. Watching 7597 on NQ futures as a potential July target.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Topping Tuesday then 30-point pullback; higher Thursday; generally higher into July 18.

FOR MONDAY: (7/9) Lately, we get Chinese surprises over the weekend and if retaliatory efforts are worse than expected, the market could tank sharply on Sunday. Cycles suggest as much for Sunday/Monday. We have a number of turns due over the weekend or at the latest into Tuesday/Wednesday for financials so will see what develops.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (7/6) Very difficult day to trade. Cycles look positive for stocks but will the trade fade any news? We continue to go with price and pattern and we’re more inclined to expect a downside resolution for stocks into the weekend. Market is currently bid on hopes for some China resolution–and if it comes, then the market may gallop and leave the bears in the dust.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (7/3) We have pre-holiday trading in thin conditions and while we understand patterns and cycles, it usually isn’t worth trading choppy action before the Friday employment report. Leave it alone and enjoy the holiday break. We can often get a lot of fake-out moves in these conditions and they seem exaggerated so we have to wait for volume to return. Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (7/2) We’re dealing with first-of-the-month fund buying but also have to deal with thin holiday conditions all week, although Europe and Asia won’t be as thin. The week of employment report can have a huge range on Monday and then be followed by congestion, and it usually makes for quicker and shorter trades. Given the holidays, we may be trading very thinly unless there is something very clear.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (6/29) Lots of reports and month-end position squaring onFriday. Many of the trends we have had in place look like they will continue into Tuesday of next week before the official July 4th holiday. In reality, many people will take all of next week off and many will disappear already on Friday. Stocks could be wild on Friday but not sure who wants to go home with anything.Continue reading

FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Frustrating day in that the market ended lower but had a wild early morning spike that took out our protective stops. We at least expect new lows overnight but the market may do another sucker punch if the trade decides to head for the exits early.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/27) We’re concerned that the markets will turn into a ghost town the week of July 2-6 with the 4th falling on a Wednesday. May seem a lot like the week of Christmas with everyone traveling. That often leaves us with congestive patterns and no clues. Still enough volume for a few days but could thin into Friday. We’re open to a break in stocks on Wednesday but then wonder if we will get short-covering for a while and that seems to be the case.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (6/25) Cycle lows for stocks dominate into at least Wednesday, and end-of- the-month unraveling may not help into the end of the week if anyone is left before a 1-week 4th of July holiday. We should still be able to safely sell stocks on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the verdict is out on gold, the dollar and oil, as Monday’s action wasn’t definitive.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (6/25) Trade is processing the aftermath of Friday’s OPEC meeting so may have wild action on Sunday. Stocks getting more serious about shorts and metals running out of time for new lows by Sunday night or early Monday. Dollar looks lower into Sunday.Continue reading