Position squaring for long weekend

FOR THURSDAY: (4/13) Trade will be position squaring for the long weekend. We looked at cycles next week and they look friendly for grains and cattle but lower for hogs. We’ll probably want to add more grain on pullbacks on Sunday night. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first.Continue reading

Cattle very overbought

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/12) We completed grain cycles for the month and they look like they hold up longer than we originally thought so chances are we can be long at least into April 19-20. Cattle are very overbought now and near key pattern completions and we think pre-holiday profit-taking will set in by Thursday and continue into Monday. We took profits on hogs. There is a bit more to get on the upside but we’re nervous with rollover from April to June hogs on Monday and the cash/futures spreads.Continue reading

Grains oversold going into WASDE

AGRICULTURAL MARKETS OVERVIEW FOR TUESDAY: (4/11) Another USDA report and this one is too soon after the March 31 reports. Market oversold going into it as of Sunday night but not so much for corn now. We have a bias toward higher grain prices into Friday but need to buy value if we can still get it. Meats are acting sickly but we still would buy cattle and usually hogs are higher into Wednesday.Continue reading

Key cycle low for grains by Sunday or early Monday

FOR MONDAY: (4/10) We have a key cycle low for grains by Sunday or early Monday and it can set up a countertrend buy if you want to be long into the USDA report on Tuesday. Weather news is largely good for crops but bearish for prices with the recent widespread rain to be followed by a few days of warm, dry conditions in both the Plains and Midwest. Rain returns to the Midwest on Sunday with severe storms expected in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Iowa. Next Tuesday is USDA’s monthly supply and demand reports. A Bloomberg survey showed the trade expects increases in U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks, plus some higher numbers for Argentina and Brazil corn and soybeans.Continue reading

Looking to buy hogs

FOR THURSDAY: (4/6) We’re willing to sell beans an wheat if we get a bounce and hogs should be a buy if we can get in lower. Cattle may be done here for now but we never like being long on a Thursday.Continue reading

Grains may hold up on Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (4/4) Grains may hold up on Tuesday and pull back into Thursday and we have to be patient here. Cattle look sideways to lower into Wednesday and hogs are due for a comeback.Continue reading

Hogs seem up into Wednesday.

FOR MONDAY: (4/3) Short-covering on corn likely to continue at least one more day and maybe two and that should pull beans up. Not interested in buying wheat but it will be a sale if 452.75 comes in. Cattle due for short-covering on Monday and hogs seem up into Wednesday.Continue reading

Market often lower after the March acreage report

FOR FRIDAY: (3/31) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Will it happen on Friday at the report announcement? Starting to seem that way. Stats often have the market lower after the March acreage report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long. Market does look higher after the report into early next week but will it kill bottom-pickers first. Dollar and crude are starting to recover, with the latter a positive for grains and the dollar projecting 101.00 and crude looks higher much of next week.Continue reading

Grain patterns suggest one more low

FOR THURSDAY: (3/30) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Will it happen on Friday at the report announcement? Starting to seem that way. Stats often have the market lower after the March acreage report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Dollar and crude are starting to recover, with the latter a positive for grains.Continue reading