FOR TUESDAY: (8/22) Grains could bounce overnight from oversold conditions but in the end they seem lower into Friday and even if they’re oversold, they’re in trouble. Would resell beans if they stay under 950 in the early morning and corn is rather beaten up but wheat going to 391 might pull it lower. Cattle are higher on Tuesday but feeders would look better with one more push lower.Continue reading
Wheat not done until 405
FOR MONDAY: Not expecting a whole lot of movement. At some point we need to sell beans but have to be patient probably until Monday night. Wheat not done until 405 comes and corn still will hit 359 if you’re patient. We had noted that the last 3 years we didn’t get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen until Wednesday. Impossible to be long. Waiting for a possible bounce into Monday to get something short but can’t count on anything. Beans closer to 939 or 946 could still offer a sale/hedge.Continue reading
Waiting for possible bounce into Monday
FOR FRIDAY: We had noted that the last 3 years we did not get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen Wednesday. Impossible to be long. Waiting for a possible bounce into Monday to get something short but can’t count on anything. Beans closer to 939 or 946 could still offer a sale/hedge.Continue reading
Grains looking more bearish Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: We had noted that the last 3 years we did not get an August grain bounce and even with the best cycles nothing could happen today. Looking more bearish for Thursday but no risk/reward on new sales. Only beans managed to bounce off of key support at 921. Wheat starting to project 405 and will pull corn to 359.Continue reading
Grains not bouncing
FOR WEDNESDAY: Grains not bouncing and closer to our target areas with some in already with lower targets of 363 on Dec. corn and 921 on Nov. beans or 420-1 on Sept. wheat still could come in. If you’re short, take partial profits on multiples. Chances for a huge bounce are small. Last 3 Augusts didn’t have a seasonal bounce not seeing much reason for one.Continue reading
Cattle look lower this week
FOR TUESDAY: (8/15) Warm and wet conditions in the forecast will help grains and the trade is working on complete the patterns that were not quite complete going into the weekend. Patterns look just about complete on grains but one more push down would set up a buy for week for traders. Cattle look lower this week but need a 1-2 day bounce to get better prices.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (8/15) Market bounced to resistance at 376.25 and is down in the night session a more bearish corn report. Ideally we would like to see 367 or 363.50. We would look to take partial profits at 367 and some more at 364 if it comes in but not too worried that this market will run away to the upside, and certainly not buying. Seems like short-covering could continue later in the week and we may take partial profits off in the morning.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Tuesday and possibly recovering into Aug. 20; lower into Aug. 22.
Grain patterns look just about complete
FOR MONDAY: (8/14) Patterns look just about complete on grains but one more push down would set up a buy for week for traders. Cattle look lower this week but need a 1-2 day bounce to get better prices. Hogs look mixed this week.Continue reading
Pattern completions on grains seem close
FOR FRIDAY: (8/11) Pattern completions on grains seem close and a little more may lead to pre-weekend short-covering. Cycles for Sunday look lower though. While we see a recovery next week, it may not mean much. Good to bank partial profits before a weekend break. Continue reading
Grains likely to fall into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (8/10) We have a bias toward a fall into Friday for grains and if we get better risk/rewards the next day, we might consider being short a ½ position looking for a fall into Friday and then a recovery next week. Beans never completed pattern to 942, which stands a good chance of coming in. Wheat got close enough to 450 that not sure there’s much to do there and corn could be a sale closer to 390 at some point and we have to see more data. We may put out orders in the morning. We are inclined to expect lower action into Friday but could see the market recover to the upside starting next week. USDA report at 11 am.Continue reading
Grains sideways into USDA report
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/9) Expecting a sideways day before the USDA report and as always we will have to take positions during the report to catch the moves. We are inclined to see lower action into Friday but could see the market recover to the upside starting next week.Continue reading