Still see a recovery for meats this week

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/6) We ‘ve been thinking early frost this year because of a very cool August and now parts of western NE may experience it on Wednesday and that could spook the market more. While the hurricane’s path is unknown, damage to orange groves is likely and those hurricane remnants may hurt Southern harvest. Given a very oversold grains, there’s reason to have short-covering. We still see a recovery for meats this week.Continue reading

Dealing with month-end profit-taking

FOR FRIDAY: (9/1) Dealing with month-end profit-taking, position squaring and pre-Labor Day position squaring. Lower pattern completions on grains should be over by Tuesday to 918 on Nov. beans and 338 on Dec. corn. Not seeing any huge reason to buy but that could change by Tuesday night.Continue reading

Hogs should start short-covering

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/30) We have to start thinking about month-end profit-taking, fund-squaring and pre-Labor Day thinning out of the trade. That makes new positions a bit more precarious, as profit-taking will enter. Hogs should start short-covering to the upside. Cattle look wild and will do a secondary low the next few days and grains still have lower to go as late as Tuesday when we return from the holiday.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (8/29) Rains last week improved crops but is the market oversold enough that a bounce will start soon. Some key numbers are close now and cycle lows due by Wednesday. Cattle are overbought already from the report and hope to get a secondary low by Friday to buy. Hogs seasonally bottom here.Continue reading

Open to a Sunday grain bounce

FOR MONDAY: (8/25) We’re open for a Sunday bounce but patterns to the downside on corn aren’t complete. The Cattle on Feed report wasn’t as bad as expected, with placements coming in at 2.7% increase vs. expectations for 6.2%. The good news is that once the large supply overhanging the market dries up in the next 4-5 weeks, that maybe by Jan-Feb, the trend will reverse back to the upside for higher prices. Cattle are very oversold and so they may be difficult to push down too much more unless the trade continues to trade seasonal problems into late September and too much supply over the next 4-5 weeks.Continue reading

Cycles volatile on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (8/25) Cycles are volatile on Friday and not sure if anyone will care about the hurricane. Yellen is also speaking in Jackson Hole so the week should end with a bang. Markets are very oversold but the trend down for grains is very strong. Any bounces will be a gift.Continue reading

Corn keeps making new lows

FOR THURSDAY: (8/24) Grains still in trouble, as corn keeps making new lows along with wheat. Favorable weather will support filling of bean pods and increase yields. Hogs still lower a few more days so sell rallies and cattle congesting before COF report but should go lower.Continue reading

Grains still in trouble

FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/23) Grains still in trouble, as corn keeps making new lows along with wheat. Spreading against long beans is preventing beans from breaking and support from oil is helping. Cattle up one more day but then we would exit before pre-COF position squaring enters. Cold storage report is friendly and worth a day trade buy for hogs but not sure how long we can stick around.Continue reading