FOR TUESDAY: (6/12) Another USDA report day and they are often turning points. That’s particularly so this time with very oversold conditions and cycles suggesting a recovery into June 18. There‘s reason to take profit on shorts and hedges and then we will re-evaluate by June 18. We’re still open to much lower prices, as July wheat needs to go to 485-6 and July corn to 340-1 and July beans could hit 900. If we put in June lows, the market has a great chance of recovering if heat hits pollination, and some weather threat is likely.
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/12) The USDA report is often a turning point and the market is very overdone. Market may not take out 950 now with major support at 940-44. First bounce should be at least 16 cents but it may be hard to take out 975. We’re open to a bounce into June 18 but it may be because the market has nowhere to go. We wonder if beans will wash-out all the way down to 900 before we get even close to the summer and pollination problems.
OVERALL: Monthly chart trendline has key support at 949-53. More than likely a year with a June low and then pollination problems in the summer and recovery but unclear where yet.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Tuesday; lower into Wednesday; higher into Thursday; higher into June 18.
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