FOR MONDAY: (8/25) We’re open for a Sunday bounce but patterns to the downside on corn aren’t complete. The Cattle on Feed report wasn’t as bad as expected, with placements coming in at 2.7% increase vs. expectations for 6.2%. The good news is that once the large supply overhanging the market dries up in the next 4-5 weeks, that maybe by Jan-Feb, the trend will reverse back to the upside for higher prices. Cattle are very oversold and so they may be difficult to push down too much more unless the trade continues to trade seasonal problems into late September and too much supply over the next 4-5 weeks.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (8/25) Projections to 348.25. Market may stall under trendline resistance at 357.50 and taking out 360 would be friendly. Another South Korean buyer is tendering for corn today, but the U.S. faces fierce completion for business, even with regular customers in Asia. Export sales last week totaled 20.7 million bushels below trade guesses, with most of the bookings now for new crop as the 2016 marketing year winds down. Old crop commitments are a little slow on the USDA tally sheet but look better when Census figures are considered.
OVERALL: Still weak a few more days. Projections now down to 348.75. Close below 360 is ugly and unlikely it will go above there. Still safe to sell. Not seeing anything to create a strong rally here, which means another August like the last 3 where prices keep eroding. Once 348.50 comes in, bounce only to 367.50.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Sideways Sunday/Monday; lower into Tuesday; bottoming by Wednesday.
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